By-Elections 2025: Voter Backlash For BJP, Congress

By-elections are rarely a true test of political sentiment at the national level. They are often fought on hyper-local issues, with personalities and caste equations playing a greater role than ideology or policy. Yet, the recent by-elections across Gujarat, Punjab, Kerala, and West Bengal offer insights that major political players would do well not to ignore. The most striking takeaway is the evident erosion in the BJP’s popularity. Of the five seats contested, the party managed to win only one—in Gujarat, its traditional stronghold. Even that victory has been overshadowed by a humiliating defeat in Visavadar, where the BJP’s Gujarat president lost by a margin of 17,000 votes. That such a senior leader could be trounced so convincingly in the party’s own bastion is cause for concern in Prime Minister’s office.

More embarrassing still was the BJP’s performance in Nilambur (Kerala) and Ludhiana (Punjab), where it lost its security deposit—a clear sign of rejection. In Kaliganj (West Bengal), the party’s candidate came a distant second, trailing the Trinamool Congress by a whopping 50,000 votes. That Muslims constitute 54 per cent of the voters is no argument at all, as all parties are expected to appeal to all sections of the population. The Congress does not have much to cheer either. While it managed to win Nilambur by over 11,000 votes, it was not a factor in Gujarat or West Bengal. However, in Ludhiana, it can take some comfort in polling more votes than the BJP—a small, symbolic gain in a state where the party is struggling to regain relevance. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has reason to smile. After its poor showing in the Delhi state elections, winning a seat each in Gujarat and Punjab provides it with a morale boost. But AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal’s claim that the party is now poised to take power in Gujarat and grow stronger in Punjab may be premature. These wins are signs of revival, not of dominance.

As Assembly Polls Reveal, The BJP Is No Longer Invincible

Perhaps the biggest setback was suffered by Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Nilambur, once a Left stronghold, slipped out of his grasp. The seat was vacated by a Left-backed independent, and its loss underscores growing dissatisfaction with the Chief Minister’s personal brand of politics, often referred to as “Pinarayism”, which prioritises family and power over Marxist principles. In contrast, Mamata Banerjee reasserted her authority in West Bengal with a thumping win in Kaliganj, reaffirming her position as the state’s undisputed leader. These by-elections came soon after the much-publicised Operation Sindoor and the BJP’s chest-thumping over India’s economic rise. Yet, these narratives failed to sway voters. Ultimately, the results are a warning: no party can rely on slogans or past glory. The electorate is watching, and it demands performance, not propaganda.